Archéologie des théories

Quelles sont les plus anciennes théories sur ASOIAF? Quand est-ce que les fans ont commencé à parler de R+L=J? Quelles théories étaient super populaires à un moment et se sont révélées fausses? Lesquelles se sont au contraire révélées vraies?

Un topic pour discuter de cela et de toutes les questions similaires qui pourraient vous passer par la tête, parce que j’aime bien les théories (quelle surprise).

Rappel des dates de parution des livres:

• A Game of Thrones, 6 août 1996
• The Hedge Knight, 25 août 1998
• A Clash of Kings, 16 novembre 1998
• A Storm of Swords, 8 août 2000
• The Sworn Sword, septembre 2003
• A Feast for Crows, 17 octobre 2005
• The Mystery Knight, 16 mars 2010
• A Dance with Dragons, 17 juillet 2011
• The world of Ice and Fire, 28 octobre 2014
• Fire & Blood, 20 novembre 2018

Si j’en crois cet article et des discussions sur internet, il y a une légende urbaine disant que l’éditrice de GrrM, Anne Groell, avait compris  R+L=J dès le moment où elle a travaillé sur le texte du tome 1.

La plus ancienne occurrence sur internet évoquant l’idée de R+L=J semble remonter à septembre 1997, sur le groupe Usenet rec.arts.sf.written . Mais vu comment c’est présenté, je n’ai pas l’impression que la personne qui écrit le post d’origine balance là un scoop, il est fort possible que la théorie ait déjà été discutée avant cela.

Par ailleurs, on peut retrouver ici une liste de théorie avancées en 1998, certaines qui se sont révélées vraies, d’autres fausses. L’archive n’est malheureusement plus disponible, ne reste que la liste. :-/

• R+L=J
• SanSan
• Jeyne Poole will become a hooker
• Dany will start her conquest at the Eyrie
• Sansa will get killed while in captivity, like Lyanna (Lady’s death being foreshadowing)
• Jon will have children, possibly with Dany
• Ser Barristan knows of R + L = J so he will go help Jon
• Rhaegar did not rape Lyanna, it was a consensual relationship
• Howland Reed will come into play later because he knows who Jon’s real parents are
• Bran will learn magic
• Bran will learn magic and will cure Dany of her fertility problems
• The Night’s Watch will get wiped out (in ACOK), allowing for Jon to have kids
• The Night’s Watch will ally themselves with Mance Rayder to fight the Others
• Targs are immune to fire
• Varys will attempt to put a Targ on the throne again
• Jon will get abandoned north of the Wall and will join Mance
• The Night’s Watch and The Wildlings will be turned into Others that will invade the south
• Lyanna was raped by Rhaegar
• Joffrey, Sansa, and Cat will die in ACOK
• Jon will need to ask Robb for help against the Others. So, Robb will either sign a peace treaty, or will win the War of Five Kings extremely quickly
• Robb will make peace with Tywin by exchanging hostages. Robb will then fight the Others while Tywin fights the Baratheon brothers
• Robb will die before the Others attack
• Tywin will defeat Stannis and Renly and will force all POWs to join the Night’s Watch to help against the Others
• Tyrion will overthrow Tywin
• By book 3 Dany will be in Westeros
• Dany will align herself with House Martel after she lands
• Joffrey will die in book 3 after Tywin trades Joffrey for Jaime. If not Joffrey will get killed by the Lannisters regardless
• Roose Bolton will end up being a problem for the Lannisters
• Robb will get sellswords to sack Casterly Rock
• Yoren will return Arya to Robb
• Tyrion will kill Tommen, Joffrey, and Tywin
• Robb will sack Casterly Rock, drawing Tywin out. Tywin will leave King’s Landing unguarded, allowing Renly or Stannis to swoop in
• Tyrion will get framed for either the death of Joffrey or Tommen
• Tyrion will get rid of Janos Slynt
• Jon isn’t a bastard and Lyanna married Rhaegar
• Jon will fuck Cat and have a child with her
• Ser Hugh poisoned Jon Arryn under Cersei’s orders. Lysa knew about it but did nothing to stop it
• The legitimate child of a bastard gets the non-bastard parent’s last name
• Varys killed Jon Arryn

Comme je n’étais pas là avant la parution d’ADWD, je n’ai pas vraiment connaissance de théories populaires pré-ADWD que les parutions successives des livres de la saga principale ou de Dunk & L’Oeuf auraient mises aux oubliettes, ou auraient au contraire confirmées.

A une exception près: il me semble avoir lu des topics disant que l’idée que Freuxsanglant était La Corneille à Trois Yeux était assez populaire avant ADWD. Quelqu’un confirme?

Concernant Feu & Sang, il y a ce message qui nous rappelle qu’avant sa parution, la possibilité que Viserys II (le frère d’Aegon III disparu pendant la bataille du Gosier et retrouvé des années plus tard à Lys) soit un faux était souvent évoquée, mais Feu & Sang a définitivement enterré cette hypothèse.

D’autres choses du genre?

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Ajout: Cet article de Vox est intéressant, des vieux de la vieille (dont Elio et Linda, mais même eux n’étaient pas vraiment là dès les tout débuts) y évoquent leurs souvenirs brumeux dès débuts d’ASOIAF. Grosso modo, pas mal de gens disent avoir eu l’idée par eux-même de R+L=J, ou qu’un autre fan leur en a parlé dès le tome 1. Mais à l’époque ça se passait dans des discussions autour d’une bière en convention, et avec les débuts d’internet dans des listes de conversation mails, des groupes de chat… Et si l’idée était évoquée, elle n’était pas forcément étayée. Et parfois ils l’ont retoquée en riant dans un premier temps, avant de faire une relecture et de se rendre compte qu’en effet il y avait plein d’indices allant dans ce sens, ou de lire le second tome et de se rendre compte que de nouveaux indices renforçait cette idée.

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Update 2:

Pour info, côté espace de discussion, on retrouve en fait dans les archives l’existence de sites de fans et d’espace de discussions dès 1998-1999. Le plus connu à l’époque semble être un site australien appelé Dragonstone.

Sa FAQ est amusante, parce qu’elle nous informe de quelles étaient les questions les plus brûlantes à l’époque. Et déjà les fans avaient envie de ressusciter des gens clairement morts et de savoir ce qu’il y avait de l’autre côté de l’océan.

(Les liens sont actifs, mais je copie-colle certains bouts marrants directement)

1. When is the next book due?
2. How many books will there be?
3. How will Bran fly?

Though purely conjecture at this point it seems the most likely possibilities of Bran flying are:-

• On the back of a dragon, becoming the knight he always dreamed of being.
• Out of the Moon Door. He may at some stage raise the anger of the holder of the Eyrie and be punished thus. The crow has not been proven to be entirely friendly thus far.
• Bran has heard stories that the Children of the Forest flew with magic and this may be how Bran flies. Old Nan’s story about the seeking of the Children, ‘just a boy and his dog’, sounds a lot like Jon however.
• Perhaps it is not physical flying after all. Bran may only fly within his mind and become somewhat of a psychic.

4. Is Eddard dead?

Let’s get this straight, I believe Eddard is dead. This section has been included for a friend of mine who thinks the execution was ‘not quite right’. The arguments I use to refute him are:-

• Sansa’s reaction – she was very close to the spectacle and did not once believe it was not her father.
• Varys’ reaction – Arya says the eunuch was waving his arms around when the sentence was passed. Were the execution to have been a fake he would have no cause to show public sympathy for Ned. It is very unlikely any deception would not have been seen by Varys.
• Tywin Lannister believes that Eddard is dead and gives up hope for his son on the strength of that belief. He surely would have been part of any plot involving a faked death.
• Cersei’s reaction – even she was not pleased at the sentence passed by her son.

5. What is it about Hodor and the crypt?

We have little to go on here. We know that Hodor is afraid of the crypts and I can only assume this is either due to his giantish heritage or some childhood event, perhaps the same one that so limited his vocabulary.

6. Will the descendants of Bran the Shipwright ever appear?

Again this is simply conjecture, but I feel there probably is some significance in the Stark’s who sailed to the west across the Sunset Sea. Any ideas?

7. Who is Jon Snow’s real mother?

8. What will Tyrion do next?

One feeling is that Tyrion will now try to exact revenge on Littlefinger for the whole knife affair.  A sneak insight into the events of ACoK (I have one ‘spy’ in the Martin camp) shows Tyrion at a wedding at some stage of the book.  No idea who is involved or what Tyrion’s role is, but he is there all the same.

It seems also that the smallest Lannister may also play an important role in the whole series, these quotes seem to support this:-

« When he opened the door, the light from within threw his shadow clear across the yard, and just for a moment Tyrion Lannister stood tall as a king. »

There’s also the remark at table in Castle Black, in which Maester Aemon says: « I think he is a giant come among us, here at the end of the world. »

9. Who / what are the Others and how can they be defeated?
10. Is Rhaego really dead?
11. Were Jaime and Cersei alone in the muder of Jon Arryn?

I know that it seems obvious that Jaime and Cersei were alone in the plots on Jon arryn, but what’s with the double stories presented about Robert Arryen’s fostering? Lysa claims to believe that Jon Arryn intended to send Robert to foster with Tywin Lannister at Casterly Rock, a death sentence for the boy. Yet everyone else seems to think that Jon Arryn planned to send the boy to foster with Stannis Baratheon at Dragonstone.

So — is Lysa lying about the fostering plans? I have to wonder if she herself didn’t plot to have Jon Arryn killed because he planned to take her son away from her for the boy’s own good. There’s a lot of finger pointing at Ser Hugh, Jon Arryn’s former squire, but oddly enough he dies before anyone can actually get his side of the story. Why else would Lysa lie about the fostering plans? Just to make sure no one would try to take her son away to Dragonstone even after Jon’s death?

12. What effects does the old blood have on the Starks?
13. Do the characters from AGOT bear any resemblance to historical figures? UPDATED

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Y’a d’autres sites appelés Harrenhal (présent au moins dès octobre 1999), Ravenwatch (qui existait apparemment en avril 1999), iceandfire (dès décembre 1998), welcome.to/iceandfire…

Le forum Asongoficeandfire.org (fondé en septembre 2000) semble encore navigable. ^^

Un fil rigolo du forum ci-dessus: Is Aegon alive?

J’essaye d’en trouver d’autres mais pas mal ne sont pas archivés malheureusement. :-/

• Ce sujet a été modifié le il y a 3 mois par DNDM. Raison: Ajout Article Vox